Syria: The next Libya?

Syria, a country that has been embroiled in a devastating war for more than a decade, has entered a dangerous and transitional phase since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Ahmed al-Shara, known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the former leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is now trying to form a centralized and stable government as interim president. However, increasing signs of security instability, tribal rivalries, and foreign interference are bringing Syria’s outlook closer to a scenario similar to Libya after Muammar Gaddafi.

Libya was divided into two rival governments after Gaddafi’s fall in 2011 and has suffered from civil wars, conflicts over oil resources, and the influence of foreign powers to this day. The country has now become a warning example for Syria. This IRNA research report examines the similarities, differences, and dangers facing Syria to clarify how the country is on the path to becoming a “second Libya”; A country with a shaky government structure, geographical divisions, and hotbeds of crisis ready to erupt.

Structural similarities

The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar has reported on a series of security challenges in Syria that have raised serious doubts about the effectiveness of the Golani security structure. Inspired by the model of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Idlib, this structure appeared to work during the war and before the fall of Bashar al-Assad, when the group was able to unite dozens of armed groups, govern Idlib, and become a strike force in northern Syria.

But in the current situation, when there are no more active war fronts, this model is in trouble. Today, armed groups compete with each other for financial resources, from economic projects to control of smuggling routes, and their alliances have become fragile. Washington’s insistence on dialogue on the Kurdish issue, Israel’s support for the Druze in Sweida, and the lack of a widespread threat of war have made the Golani security model appear ineffective.