PNN – According to a prominent Israeli analyst, the Trump model being implemented in Syria will have no other fate than failure in Lebanon.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, Tsfi Bareil emphasized in a note published in the Haaretz newspaper on Monday that the difficulty of disarming the resistance in Lebanon and the lack of a regional country that can support and guarantee the functioning of the Beirut cabinet have made the task difficult for Trump, and this could leave Israel alone on this front.
Referring to the US and Trump’s project for Syria, the article states that it was last December that Syria succeeded in taking advantage of limited economic aid, mainly provided by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, most of which was used to finance government activities.
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But from now on, it can use billions of dollars for reconstruction, while even before the sanctions were lifted; the Syrian government had signed contracts with foreign companies.
Meanwhile, Trump is thinking of using this project as a model for Lebanon, because apparently a new structure has been formed in Lebanon under the leadership of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and the country also needs tens of billions of dollars to rebuild the ruins of the war and get its economy out of crisis.
According to this Zionist analyst, Lebanon today also relies heavily on the government’s control of weapons and military activities, and in this regard, it relies on the text of the ceasefire agreement with Israel, which obliges Lebanon to disarm militant groups.
But Lebanon has a different situation. The Lebanese government, which on Saturday successfully held all four rounds of municipal elections after a three-year delay (elections in which Hezbollah candidates won a significant victory), is now faced with the dilemma of how to deal with this weapon without it leading to widespread protests and pushing the country into civil war.
Currently, Mahmoud Abbas has come to the aid of this project and was able to resolve the issue of weapons in the Palestinian camps.
According to this analyst, today, in his attempt to gradually cut ties with Lebanon, as he is doing with Syria, Trump sees three paths before him, one of which he must choose in order to prevent the outbreak of a new war that will endanger Israel.
Or, the model used for the Syrian extremists ruling this country should be applied to Lebanon and the same privileges given to this group should be given to the Lebanese. This means giving the Lebanese government the opportunity to negotiate with Hezbollah for any period of time needed.
Second, it should use all its media power and capacity to disarm, thereby risking losing control of the situation.
There is a third way, which is to turn its back on Lebanon altogether, abandon it, and allow it to resolve its issues directly with Israel, without any interference in the matter.