PNN – In an article, a German media discussed the dangers of Donald Trump’s re-election in the United States for Europe, which is not far from the mind.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, the German newspaper “Handelsblatt” in an article addressed the danger of Donald Trump’s re-election in America as a great threat to the European Union and wrote: Trump has made it clear that if he succeeds in returning to the White House, he will impose massive tariffs on European imports and cripple NATO. His goals will be a disaster for European relations.
In the continuation of this article, it is stated: January 20, 2025 is a date that seems very far away. Donald Trump can go back to the White House on Inauguration Day and change the world. Of course, the former US president has not yet been nominated by his party, the Republicans. But in the Republican primaries that begin in January, Trump is the favorite, while Joe Biden is losing popularity even in his favorite states.
“Peter Ruff”, the European director of the conservative think tank Hudson, told the Handelsblatt newspaper about this: It is often claimed that Donald Trump is too polar to win the US presidential election. But I doubt it. The data shows that Trump actually has a chance. Trump’s second term is more likely than ever.
Still, much can happen between now and Election Day on November 5, 2024, the US presidential campaign is unpredictable: age-related doubts about Biden’s ability to govern could mean he is ultimately defeated by Democrats will not be nominated. Trump may be sentenced to prison. Or, in Washington, it’s not out of the question that no candidate wins a majority on Election Day and powerful third parties unexpectedly plunge the United States into a constitutional crisis.
If Trump manages to return to the White House, there is a risk of unbridled politics at all levels. The main issue in his mind is revenge and retribution: In front of thousands of supporters during the election campaign, Trump shouted, invoking the rhetoric of the National Socialists: The final battle is about to begin.” According to Ruff, the undiluted and undistilled version of Trump is likely to be reflected mainly in his trade and foreign policy — areas that most affect Europe.
One of these fields is the issue of trade and economy. The American senior manager of an industrial company says: When it comes to deregulation, Trump is better for many companies. “But in terms of planning security, it’s not good for us,” he explains.
He emphasized: “With Trump, we never knew what was going to be done in the future, and if you as a company have to decide whether to build a factory that will open in the next few years, then you need stable framework conditions.”
Jason Furman, the Obama administration’s economic adviser, also considers Trump’s erratic manner “inconsistent in terms of macroeconomics” and in his opinion, this is precisely why Trump’s return to the White House will be very dangerous for the American economy and the global economy.
He announced that Trump wants to impose a flat rate of at least ten percent punitive tariffs on all goods imported into the United States – which would particularly affect the European Union as the second largest trading partner of the United States. Trump said he wants to put a ring of fire around the United States of America.
The current tariff rate is three percent on average, but in the case of China it is 19 percent. Furman told the Handelsblatt newspaper: Trump’s initial tariffs are starting a global trade war that could be worse than anything we’ve seen so far.
The American Chamber of Commerce has warned of “massive retaliatory measures” that Europe will be forced to take as well. Accordingly, higher tariffs would increase inflation, hurt US manufacturing and prompt trading partners to raise their own tariffs as well. The American Chamber of Commerce also warned: Other countries simply do not accept tariffs. Surrounding Trump are rumors of plans to cut the corporate tax rate from the current 21 percent to 15 percent. This would further increase the US budget deficit, Foreman warned.
Business expert Rick Bratberg explains that Biden and Trump aren’t that far apart when it comes to industrial policy, but Trump is distancing himself from everything Biden says, even though GOP states are seeing high levels of investment.
During his first term, Trump also read aloud to his office aides a list of smaller NATO countries that he said most Americans had never heard of. But despite his threats to withdraw the United States from the military alliance, he always seemed to have advisers dissuading him from such an escalation.
In the possible second term of the presidency, he will probably not shy away from this. Mark Esper, Trump’s former defense secretary, said in an interview with Handelsblatt: Trump is likely to withdraw a number of US troops from allied countries, starting with Germany and trying to pull the US out of NATO.
However, the US Congress, which has supported NATO for almost 75 years, will block the withdrawal, says Peter Ruff, director of Europe at Hudson. Trump can weaken NATO in other ways. “If the Russians conquer Ukraine and attack countries like Estonia, NATO will die.
Then the Americans have to choose: do we send troops or abandon the NATO security architecture? Trump could choose the latter. It’s more likely that he could cause the collapse of NATO, Ruff explains.
Rolling Stone magazine reported that Trump plans to reduce involvement in NATO to the point that the United States will only be on standby.
According to Ruff, Trump is unpredictable when it comes to Ukraine. He swings like a pendulum between aggression and isolationism. At one point he threatened to cut off aid to Ukraine, then declared that he would “shower Ukraine with money and weapons” if Putin did not agree to a ceasefire.
Of course, Ruff said: “Trump does not like to be embarrassed or pushed into a corner on the world stage. Not everything about Trump’s foreign policy is automatically bad for Europeans. It cannot be denied that Trump had “a certain deterrent effect on Putin.”