The Disappointing Prospects of Trump’s Peace Plan for Ukraine.
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year with no clear end in sight, US President Donald Trump’s team has begun efforts to develop a new plan to end the conflict. After the recent agreement in Gaza, Trump’s entourage has once again focused on the idea of a “grand deal” in Ukraine, a deal that, according to sources close to him, could involve a combination of military pressure, economic bargaining, and diplomatic process.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wrote in a report on the matter: Trump’s solution in the military sphere could include the delivery of long-range missiles such as Tomahawks to Ukraine. The plan also seeks to restrict Russian oil sales by pressuring India, while using frozen Russian assets to finance arms purchases for Kyiv.
The CSIS Futures Lab has identified the most appropriate type of agreement, according to experts, as follows: a moratorium on Ukraine’s formal membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a strict structuring of sanctions relief based on Russia’s verifiable behavior, and a strict restriction on the use of frozen Russian assets only for internationally supervised reconstruction, refraining from formal recognition of Moscow’s occupation, while increasing the capabilities of Ukraine’s defense industry and ensuring that Moscow does not interfere in its domestic politics.
According to this analysis, the best chance for peace is to end the conflict along current lines without formal recognition of Russia’s occupation. In this framework, NATO membership for Ukraine would remain out of the question, but limited security cooperation with the West would continue. Russian assets would not be used directly for reconstruction, but could be negotiated in the form of economic concessions or partial lifting of sanctions.