The unclear future of the Zionist regime: from political uncertainty to security challenges.
Major European think tanks have provided significant analyses of the future of the Zionist regime between 2015 and 2025, focusing on political, security, economic, and international relations dimensions.
The analyses highlight the political challenges posed by the extreme right, the continuing security concerns in Gaza and the West Bank, and the complexity of relations with Europe and Russia. The unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict is highlighted as a key obstacle to stability, and the think tanks emphasize the need for justice and an end to the occupation.
Analyzing the future of Israel is of particular importance in the context of geopolitical developments in West Asia, especially given the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict and evolving regional dynamics. European think tanks, due to Europe’s special role in global diplomacy and commitment to international law, offer valuable insights into the future path of the Israeli regime. This article aims to analyze a decade of studies (2015–2025) from key European think tanks, examining Israel’s political, security, economic, and international relations landscape.
A particular focus is on the complex relationship with the European Union, strategic engagement with Russia, and the consequences of the Palestinian conflict. By integrating recent reports, the study demonstrates a shift in European discourse towards an emphasis on human rights and accountability. (Although the experience and test of the genocide in Gaza after the Al-Aqsa storm have shown Europeans to be recalcitrant in this area.)
Methodology
This research is based on a qualitative analysis of reports and publications by European think tanks between 2015 and 2025. Sources were identified through targeted searches of think tank websites and public databases. The think tanks included IAI, ECFR, SWP, and Chatham House, which were selected for their credibility and focus on the Middle East. Due to limited access to some full reports, the analysis relies on summaries, excerpts, and publicly available content. Supplementary data was collected from reputable news sources such as Reuters and reports from organizations such as Human Rights Watch up to April 2025 to reflect the most recent developments.
Findings
Political Perspective
European think tanks emphasize Israel’s increasing tendency toward far-right politics. The IAI (2023) report highlights the emergence of a government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, with ministers such as Itamar Ben-Giver and Betzalel Smotrich, who are advancing policies of settlement expansion and resistance to Palestinian independence. This trend, which reflects societal shifts toward nationalism, challenges domestic stability and international relations.
In its analysis, ECFR highlights political uncertainty in Israel, stemming from public dissatisfaction with the leadership over allegations of corruption and its failure to manage crises such as the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The think tank advocates engaging with different sectors of Israeli society to foster stability and warns that polarization could hinder peace.
Regional Security and Stability
Security is a central theme in European analyses. The SWP (2024) report outlines Israel’s vision for Gaza, which includes maintaining security control without governance responsibilities. The rejection of Palestinian sovereignty in the West Bank and public support for Jewish resettlement in Gaza (40%) increase the risk of regional instability.
The IAI (2020) annual report examines the adaptation of Israel’s security strategies (including early warning, deterrence, and preemptive action) to changes in the Middle East. Limited relations with the Persian Gulf states, potential conflicts with Türkiye, and Iranian and Russian influence in Syria limit Israel’s strategic freedom.