PNN – In recent days, Trump has repeatedly expressed conflicting views about the goals, scale, and duration of military action against Iran.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, citing CGTN, Joe Kent, director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, announced his resignation on March 17, writing in an open letter to US President Donald Trump that Iran did not pose an “imminent threat” to the United States, the war was started under Israeli “pressure” and he could not “consciencefully support this war.”
This is the first senior US government official appointed by Trump to resign in opposition to a military strike against Iran, a move that has exposed the differences within the Trump administration regarding the decision-making process for war against Iran.
In recent days, Trump has repeatedly expressed conflicting views on the goals, scale, and duration of military action against Iran, suggesting that he is trying to appease both war hawks, peace advocates, and the demands of his Make America Great Again (MAGA) base of voters. However, his inability to simultaneously satisfy the demands of these groups has left him in an “impossible triangle” of fiscal policy.
A review of Trump’s recent statements on the prospect of military action against Iran shows that his positions have repeatedly oscillated between “victory” and “defeat”, as well as between “ceasefire” and “continuation of the war”. On the one hand, he has declared that he has “essentially defeated” Iran, but on the other hand, he has failed to declare victory in the war. While he has spoken of a quick end to the conflict, he has also implicitly emphasized that it will not end, analysts believe that these contradictions are not accidental.
Kelly Ramsey, a research fellow at the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, says these contradictory statements are actually addressed to different groups. Trump has told war hawks that the US will not immediately stop military operations, to political and business circles worried about the economic outlook and midterm elections, he has emphasized that this conflict will not be prolonged and that the Strait of Hormuz will open soon, and to the MAGA camp, he has claimed that the US has already “won.”
The three groups that Ramsey refers to are the three main forces influencing decision-making in the White House, each of which expects the duration and scale of US military action against Iran to proceed according to their wishes.
Trump’s contradictory statements in the past have also been aimed at “appeasing” all three groups simultaneously. Reuters reported, citing a White House official that the president is trying to convince “warmongers” that military action is underway, while also showing that the war may end soon and sending a message to his base that he is keeping the situation under control. However, analysts say he is unable to meet the demands of all three parties at the same time, which has trapped him in an “impossible triad.”
Analysts also believe that the current support of ordinary voters in the MAGA camp for attacking Iran is largely due to their personal allegiance to Trump and their expectation of a “quick victory.” If the war drags on and the economic costs increase, anti-war sentiment in this camp will grow rapidly.
Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says Trump has broken his campaign promises to MAGA and has created a serious political problem for himself by failing to provide a coherent justification for the war. The longer the war drags on, the more difficult it will be for Trump, he says.