Trump’s policies between economic crises and geopolitical risks.
Iraqi analyst and political activist Najah Muhammad Ali sent a special note titled “Trump’s Policies Between Economic Crises and Geopolitical Risks” to the Mehr News Agency International Group, the full text of which is as follows:
1. Tariff Shock: Decisions and Widespread Consequences
Execution Details:
Method of Implementation: The tariffs were imposed suddenly and without prior warning, causing damage to American companies.
Most Affected Sectors: Electronics ($32 billion in losses), Automobiles ($21 billion), Consumer Goods ($18 billion).
International Reactions: China and the European Union filed an official complaint with the World Trade Organization.
Deeper Analysis of the Effects:
Impacts on the Banking Sector: The 7 Largest American Banks Lost $42 Billion in One Week.
Global Shipping Movement: 15% Decrease in Container Shipping Through the Pacific.
Supply Chains: 78% of multinational supply chains disrupted.
2. Strategic dilemma reinforced
Additional information on industrial repurposing:
68% of US companies plan to maintain operations in Asia despite pressure.
Only 12% of companies have begun to partially relocate operations to the US.
Projected costs of relocation: $280-320 billion for the private sector.
Widespread energy crisis:
17% of shale oil wells shut down due to economic unviability.
US energy sector losses: $34 billion in the first quarter of 2025.
Employment impacts: 78,000 direct jobs lost in the energy sector.
3. Iran case analyzed
Extensive military analysis
US troop concentration: Increased forces to 45,000 in the Persian Gulf.
Iran capabilities: Deploying 1,200 ballistic missiles on the coast.
Scenarios of Hormuz closure: US simulation predicts daily losses of $18 billion.
Scenarios of Bab al-Mandab closure: Threat to energy supply, as Bab al-Mandab is the main route for oil transportation from the countries of the region to Europe and the US. Any disruption in this area could affect global oil prices.
New regional alliances
Iran-Russia joint defense agreement (February 2025).
China-Iran naval maneuvers with Russia under the title of “Maritime Security Belt 2025” in the Iranian port of Chabahar (March 2025).
Increase in Iraq-Iran trade exchanges by 37%.
4. Yemeni disaster analyzed
Military failure indicators
Percentage of control of the Yemeni armed forces: from 80% to 85% during 2025.
Coalition losses: 143 drones shot down since the beginning of January 2025.
Yemen’s success in breaking US dominance in the Red Sea and creating a defensive line for Palestinian resistance.
Economic repercussions
Cost of Saudi operations during the invasion: $3.2 billion per month.
Damage to the Saudi oil sector: 18% production reduction.
Impact on Aramco: 22% market value reduction.
These losses could double if US aggression in Yemen continues and Trump decides to attack Iran.
5. Widespread domestic crisis
Political divide
42% of Republicans openly oppose Trump’s policies.
5 bills proposed to limit the president’s trade powers.
Domestic economic situation
Annual inflation rate: 8.7% (highest level since 1982).
Public debt: over $36 trillion.
Credit ratings: Moody’s downgrades the US to Aa2.