Unpacking the Impact of Martyr Haniyeh’s Assassination on the Gaza Conflict.
The killing of Haniyeh and Shukr will push Iran and Hezbollah to respond delicately to avoid a full-blown regional conflict. Diplomats from the United States and the European Union are reported to be in talks with their regional counterparts, trying to prevent the crisis from spiraling further. The EU’s efforts are believed to be focused on Iran, whose leaders have vowed “harsh revenge” against Israel, whom they have blamed for Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran.
But any retaliation – even if measured – raises the possibility of further escalation, regional analysts told Al Jazeera. Experts were unsure of how Hamas, which governs Gaza, will – or can – respond, given they have been entrenched already in a 10-month war with Israel.
The attack on two regional capitals and the targeting of two senior leaders of the “axis of resistance” – a regional network of armed groups opposed to Israel-US hegemony in the region – “is an escalation that can expand this war on multiple fronts,” said Negar Mortazavi, an expert on Iran and a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy.
“[But] I don’t think Iran wants a major escalation,” she told Al Jazeera. “They avoided that back in April when they saw Israel’s attack on their consulate in Syria as crossing a red line – and Iran retaliated, but in a way that minimized the impact [of their strikes] to avoid a major escalation.
“I expect a similar situation again this time.”