War with Iran and the paradox of Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity.
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025, despite a relative boost in the personal popularity of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud party, failed to overcome the difficult situation after October 7, 2023, and restore its previous position. Post-war polls show that although Likud temporarily regained its position as the regime’s largest party, the Netanyahu-led coalition still fell short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a cabinet.
On the other hand, this increase in popularity was achieved mainly through “internal vote-stealing” within the far-right camp and at the cost of weakening Netanyahu’s allied parties. As a result, the 12-day war with Iran has merely led to a realignment of forces within the right wing, rather than being a political solution for Netanyahu, and has kept Israel’s political outlook in a state of uncertainty.
The Political Situation Before the 12-Day War
Before the outbreak of the military conflict with Iran, the political outlook for Benjamin Netanyahu and the ruling coalition was extremely unfavorable. Data from reputable and mainstream polls painted a picture of an eroding Likud party:
Likud Party: In the polls, Likud consistently won between 21 and 23 seats, indicating a significant decline in the party’s voter base. Opposition forces were the likely winners in all reputable polls.
The Emergence of a New Competitor: The official registration of Naftali Bennett’s new party on June 8, 2025, and its entry into the race, created a new dynamic. A Channel 13 poll on June 11, just two days before the war, showed Bennett’s party in the lead with 27 seats, and Likud in second place with 24 seats.
The coalition failed: The potential seats for Netanyahu’s coalition (including Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Jewish Power, and Religious Zionism) would have been around 50 at best, 11 short of the 61-seat threshold required to form a cabinet.
At this point, Netanyahu appeared to face not only a strong opposition but also a serious challenge from within the right-wing camp led by Naftali Bennett.
Initial effects of the war: Likud’s seat gains and return to the top
The 12-day war acted as a catalyst for the “rally ’round the flag effect.” In times of security crisis, voters tend to gravitate toward an established, experienced leader. This phenomenon was clearly reflected in the post-war polls:
Channel 13 poll (June 18): Likud 27 seats
Ma’ariv newspaper poll (June 20): Likud 26 seats
Site Vala poll (June 24-25): Likud 26 seats
Kan 11 poll (June 25):
Scenario with Bennett: Likud 28 seats (Bennett 24 seats)
Scenario without Bennett: Likud 31 seats
Channel 12 poll (July 1): Likud 26 seats (Bennett 24 seats)
These results represent an average increase of 4 to 5 seats for Likud compared to the pre-war period. More importantly, Netanyahu was able to snatch the lead from his main rival, Naftali Bennett, and re-establish Likud as the largest party in Israel.
Netanyahu’s Defeat at the Coalition Level
Despite Netanyahu and the Likud party’s success, the overall picture at the coalition level has not changed much. Poll data shows that the right-wing coalition led by him continues to fail to win a majority. The current ruling coalition led by Netanyahu has achieved the following results in five polls conducted during or after the war:
Channel 13: 50 seats
Ma’ariv: 49 seats
Site Vala: 48 seats
Kan 11 (with Bennett): 51 seats
Channel 12: 49 seats
These numbers show that the pro-Netanyahu bloc is still stuck in the 48-51 seat range, a significant gap from the 61-seat majority. This situation shows that most of the increase in the Likud party’s 4-5 seat increase came from its allied parties, and Likud has managed to improve its position relatively by, so to speak, stealing votes from its partner[1]. The far-right Jewish Power party, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, won about 9 seats in credible polls before the 12-Day War, but after the war, this number decreased to 6 seats.