When the red lines are violated: The reaction of resistance to the all-out war in Lebanon.
In an article, Al-Ahram Political and Strategic Studies Center investigated the possibility of a war between the Zionist regime and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, referring to the unity of the war zones of the resistance axis. This article states that the expansion of tension between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Zionist regime in June 2024 and their counterattacks, as well as the expansion of the geographical and qualitative scope of the attacks, indicate the occurrence of relative changes in the rules of conflict that the two sides have faced in the past months since the beginning of Operation Storm. Al-Aqsa was trying not to cross it.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah has recently developed the geographical framework and methods of its attacks, as well as the nature of the weapons used in response to the attacks and aggressions of the Zionist regime against the Gaza Strip and the southern parts of Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Zionist regime continues to commit genocide in Gaza and ignores all international standards and rules in this field, and at the same time, it also follows the policy of assassinating Hezbollah elements in southern Lebanon or in Syria and Iraq.
The tension between Hezbollah and the army of the Zionist regime and its tendency towards military confrontation has gone beyond the framework of the traditional rules of conflict. Of course, this confrontation does not include the Iraqi resistance forces or the Ansarullah movement in Yemen, apart from other regional resistance structures, so the question arises, what will be the position of the resistance elements if a war breaks out between Hezbollah and the Zionist regime? Will these groups expand the framework of anti-Zionist operations in the category of “unity of arenas” or will they return to the traditional rules of conflicts in the region?
The positions of Iraqi resistance groups towards the war in Lebanon
A situation where the tension between Hezbollah and the Zionist regime leads to a direct war means that other regional resistance groups will also act in support of Hezbollah, this is what has been done since the start of the Zionist regime’s war in Gaza in October 2023 is also witnessing it. Of course, the official position of the Iraqi government may be somewhat different and they think that these behaviors may put the Iraqi government in tension with its international and regional obligations with the United States. These conditions may hurt the relations between the United States and the Iraqi government, especially in the context of ending the mission of the international coalition in Iraq.
Iraqi resistance groups will probably activate a joint operation room with Hezbollah in case of war in Lebanon. This can be seen in the “unity of the fields” strategy by the resistance groups against the Zionist regime since the Al-Aqsa storm operation. In this context, we see that several military advisers affiliated with resistance groups traveled to Lebanon in May this year to establish a joint security, intelligence, and military operations room with Hezbollah. Therefore, it seems that in the event of an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel, the level of security and operational coordination between the two sides will expand.
2- Direct participation of Iraqi Hezbollah groups and Al-Nujaba Movement and Sayyid al-Shohada battalions to support Hezbollah. On July 22, these groups officially announced their readiness to fight alongside Lebanon’s Hezbollah if this movement agrees and after a possible attack by the Zionist regime on this country. Of course, this action is in contradiction with the positions of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia Al-Sudani, who puts a lot of pressure on these groups to stop attacks against American forces.
Also, it is likely that in the event of this war, Afghanistan’s Fatemiyoun and Pakistan’s Zainbiyoun brigades, which are currently present in Syria, will also join the anti-Zionist operations, and these groups will support Hezbollah. Of course, this is if the Lebanese Hezbollah needs to use these forces.
Syria
Since the beginning of the operation to support the resistance axis of the people of Gaza against the aggression of the Zionist regime, Damascus, as one of the pillars of the resistance axis, has not participated much in this process. This issue has several factors, among them the unwillingness of the Syrian government to increase tension with the Zionist regime, which reduces the spread of Zionist military attacks on important areas of Damascus. On the other hand, the Damascus government has achieved political achievements as a result of its open-door policy with Arab countries. He has achieved and tries to keep these achievements for himself.
This article adds that the relations between Hamas and the Syrian government are not the same as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the calculations of Damascus’ entry into the support front for these two currents are different from each other, so it is not clear if the Damascus government will be the main ally of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Zionist regime in the event of a war. Remain neutral as your strategic enemy?
Of course, Damascus can have limited support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah due to the economic and political pressures caused by ending the war with terrorist groups inside the country. The border tension on the borders of Turkey and the effort of Damascus to stay away from the regional war, in addition to the presence of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, are other factors of this stance.
Yemeni armed forces
Regarding the Ansarullah movement and the Yemeni armed forces, who these days are playing their role in attacking ships affiliated with the Zionist regime or its supporting governments in Bab al-Mandab and the south of the Red Sea, as well as missile and drone attacks on various areas of the occupied territories, including Tel Aviv. In the event of a war, the following events may occur:
1- Quantitative and qualitative increase in the military operations of the Yemeni armed forces in the south of the Red Sea, which will target more ships and vessels.
2- Expanding the scope of the joint military operations of the Yemeni armed forces with the Iraqi resistance groups, which began in May 2024 and under the title of the fourth stage of coordination of joint operations.
Conclusion
In the end, it should be said that the region is going through difficult conditions due to the coordination of the elements of the resistance axis in the confrontation with the Zionist regime, and in the event of a military attack by Tel Aviv against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the cooperation of the resistance groups in Iraq, Yemen and Iran will increase, and the party On the direct side of these conflicts, besides the border areas, Allah will include other areas of the occupied territories, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Asdod, in the framework of his goals.
Of course, in this case, in addition to southern Lebanon, other regions of this country will also witness attacks by the Zionist regime against its economic infrastructure, and limited ground operations may also take place in shallow border areas. Of course, it seems that the axis of resistance in the region has more power to pressure Israel to push it back from Gaza and stop the threats against Lebanon, but in any case, the shadow of the all-encompassing war in the region is visible in the development process.