Who is the winner of the US election in national polls and 7 key states?
Americans will go to the polls tomorrow, Tuesday, November 5, to choose the next president of the United States, to determine the fate of the country’s government for the next four years, a four-year term that will begin in January 2025.
What do the latest polls say?
Ahead of the election, polls show Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a slim lead over Republican incumbent Donald Trump.
According to a poll by the FiveThirtyEight analytics site, Harris is leading by 1.2 points, with 48 percent of likely voters supporting her, compared to 46.8 percent for Trump.
However, a RealClearPolitics poll shows Trump is slightly ahead, with 48.4 percent, with Harris at 48.1 percent, giving him a 0.3-point lead.
The Silver Bulletin, owned by Nate Silver, a leading American statistician, has Harris leading with 48.5 percent to Trump’s 47.4 percent, a 1.1-point margin.
The New York Times also shows a similar result, with Harris leading her rival by just one point with 49 percent to Trump’s 48.
Newsweek magazine saw these results in stark contrast to the leads of Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton in the 2020 (2018) and 2016 (2015) election years, writing: In 2020, Biden led Trump by 8.4 points, according to FiveThirtyEight, and has consistently maintained his lead among other pollsters such as RealClearPolitics and toWin270. Clinton also had a 6.2-point lead over Trump in the FiveThirtyEight model in 2016, which was replicated by other pollsters such as RealClearPolitics and toWin270.
The report, citing Clinton’s 2016 defeat in the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote, said Harris’s narrow lead over Trump and the challenge to the electoral map that requires 270 electoral college votes to win the election could make Harris’s fate similar to what happened to Hillary Clinton.
A glimmer of hope for Democrats has emerged in recent days with Harris leading Trump in early voter surveys, which show Harris has a significant lead over Trump among Americans who say they have already voted early in their country’s presidential election.
Several companies, including ABC News/Ipsos, the New York Times/CNN Business and CNN, have conducted surveys asking respondents who identify as early voters in the 2024 US presidential election. The polls show a range of 19 to 29 percentage points for Democratic presidential candidate Harris over Republican rival Trump.
These are even larger than the lead polls showed for then-Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton over Republican presidential candidate Trump in the days leading up to the 2016 presidential election when polls showed Clinton with a lead of 8 to 16 percentage points.