Why are America’s threats against Iran empty?
Since the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, the United States has repeatedly threatened military action against Iran but has never shown any inclination to engage in direct military confrontation.
In recent years, US military threats have intensified after the issue of Iran’s nuclear program was raised. For example, in 2019, after attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the US sent 1,000 additional troops to the region and blamed Iran, but refrained from direct military action.
Why has the US never launched a direct attack despite these threats? The answer lies in the strategic and military limitations of the US.
US Military Doctrine
US military doctrine, especially after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, has been that the country should only engage in operations that have a high probability of success with the least possible casualties and damage (Heritage Think Tank).
US experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan have led to long-term and costly conflicts for the US. The Iraq War, which cost more than $2 trillion and killed more than 4,400 American soldiers, led to regional instability and the rise of groups like ISIS. In Afghanistan, the United States was forced to withdraw after 20 years of military presence and spending about $2 trillion, without achieving its strategic goals, including the creation of a stable government.
“The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan showed that America’s technological superiority cannot guarantee victory against enemies with asymmetrical strategies and popular support,” writes Anthony Cordesman, a senior analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Americans know well that the Iranian people, with their religious beliefs, strong national spirit, and the experience of the eight-year war with Iraq, can resist foreign aggression.
Bernard Heikel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, emphasizes: “Iran is a master of proxy and asymmetrical wars. Any military attack could turn into a war of attrition that the United States cannot afford.”
These factors have led the United States to prioritize sanctions and diplomatic pressure against Iran instead of direct military action.