PNN – Escalating insecurity in Saudi Arabia poses a direct threat to ambitious projects such as Vision 2030.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network; amidst regional and international analysis regarding the intensifying conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, Al-Mayadeen published an article titled “Saudi Arabia: Between a Security Dilemma and Vision 2030 Ambitions.” The piece examines the unprecedented insecurity on the Saudi home front, noting that while the security approach adopted by Saudi Arabia in Yemen—and its direct involvement in regional crises—will not entirely derail Vision 2030, it will certainly delay the achievement of the initiative’s goals.
If we consider the historical experiences of certain nations that have successfully achieved economic prosperity and growth, the examples of East Asian countries—such as Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam, and even Japan—can serve as a benchmark model.
These nations succeeded in developing advanced infrastructure that facilitated their transition from light industries to iron and petrochemicals, and subsequently to shipbuilding, automotive manufacturing, electronics, and technology.
The Security Challenge and Saudi Arabia’s Ambitions in Vision 2030
In this context, these nations required security, political, and economic stability, alongside the need to establish a national education system and a political bureaucracy capable of acting effectively, boldly, and pragmatically in the face of potential complexities and crises.
While the aforementioned countries lacked the necessary resources to facilitate their projects, a nation like Saudi Arabia possesses immense oil wealth—providing it with virtually unlimited financial resources—as well as the capacity to overcome constraints regarding efficiency and sustainability through foreign assistance.
Consequently, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030—which has generated significant attention in recent years—can be described as an economic, social, and political project aimed at transforming the economy, society, and government, reducing reliance on oil, and diversifying revenue sources.
Accordingly, the success of Vision 2030 rests on a set of fundamental pillars that, beyond economic diversification and breaking free from oil dependency, require security and stability—not only within Saudi Arabia itself but across the entire region.
This vision also serves as the foundation for diversifying foreign investments in Saudi Arabia in order to reduce the country’s absolute reliance on oil. Consequently, the architects of Vision 2030 aim to convince investors that Saudi Arabia’s domestic front will remain stable and secure, and that the Kingdom possesses the necessary capabilities to safeguard its airports, ports, oil facilities, and industrial sites, as well as the ability to prevent the outbreak of—or being drawn into—any conflict that might affect it.
Furthermore, Vision 2030 aims to transform Saudi Arabia into a global logistics hub—as well as a center for tourism, aviation, and investment—thereby maximizing its geographic significance as a link between Asia, Europe, and Africa.
Accordingly, given the nature of its objectives, Vision 2030 presupposes a stable security and political environment that facilitates investment accumulation, capital attraction, tourism, and the development of new sectors, rather than relying on military might.
Saudi Arabia’s Self-Sabotage and the Uncertain Future of Vision 2030
However, Saudi Arabia’s adoption of foreign policy approaches that rely on military force as a primary and effective tool will, in a sense, undermine the strategic environment essential for the realization of Vision 2030’s goals.
Consequently, the ongoing war with Yemen—which began over eleven years ago and has reached a critical juncture due to the intense operations of Yemeni armed forces—will lead to escalating security costs at the expense of resource allocation, heightened regional risks, and investor uncertainty regarding the future of their investments.
If we examine the factors behind South Korea’s successful development, its ability to prevent security threats stemming from the conflict with North Korea from disrupting its economy stands out as a crucial element.
Consequently, it becomes increasingly evident that Saudi Arabia needs to devise a security strategy that facilitates development and prevents the conflict with Yemen from becoming an insurmountable force that derails its transformation project—aligned with the goals of Vision 2030.
While it can be argued that any realistic security strategy presupposes the necessity of maintaining defense capabilities and regional and international alliances, this does not necessarily mean focusing efforts on ending tensions through the complete elimination of the adversary.
Under these circumstances, Saudi Arabia has entered a war of attrition in the escalating conflict with Yemen and is losing its security stability.
Therefore, observers emphasize that if Saudi Arabia seeks to implement development projects such as Vision 2030, it must act realistically and move toward diplomatic, peaceful solutions rather than escalating tensions; for the pace of economic transformation is not measured by the available budget, but rather by the timeframe required to ensure the development process unfolds within a secure, stable, and predictable environment.
On the other hand, it must be noted that the transformation spearheaded by Southeast Asian nations was not a short-term process; South Korea, for instance, required more than three decades to adopt its model.
Consequently, Saudi Arabia’s ambition to realize its transformation plan within an unprecedented timeframe—spanning no more than 15 years—necessitates the elimination of any negative impacts on its trajectory. As a result, the Kingdom must manage its regional policies more pragmatically and lean increasingly toward diplomatic and peaceful solutions.
This analysis proceeds on the premise that Saudi Arabia must focus on creating the right conditions to achieve the stated goals of Vision 2030. To this end, the Saudis require stable domestic security; they must abandon their ambition of subjugating Yemen and instead address the country’s legitimate demands.
Furthermore, the continuation of the conflict compels Saudi Arabia to enter into additional military and arms contracts with the United States and European nations—imposing a heavy financial burden on the Kingdom—while also driving away foreign investors.
In general, the reality the Saudis must accept is that the mere availability of financial resources cannot guarantee the success of development projects like Vision 2030; the persistence of the current insecurity—even if it does not lead to widespread disruption of this vision—will at the very least delay it for a long time.