PNN – India has refrained from taking a formal position in favor of one side in the Iran war and remains an observer, while its main focus is on ensuring its ships’ passage through the Strait of Hormuz. However, beyond concerns about energy and food security, New Delhi has important interests in the outcome of the war and the future course of West Asian geopolitics.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network; Indian pundits, mainstream media, and former diplomats often have a deep anti-Western bias, a legacy of the Cold War, while emphasizing India’s alleged “civilizational ties” with Iran. According to this view, the US and Israel are Western imperialist powers, while the Iranian government stands alone in opposition to them, leading a society under pressure but resilient against unjust foreign aggression.
The devastating effects of war on India’s economy
India imports 85 percent of its crude oil requirements, equivalent to about 5 million barrels per day. West Asia remains a major source of India’s imports, although the country has recently tried to diversify its petrochemical portfolio. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates also supply 42 and 11 percent of India’s LNG imports, respectively.
In addition to disrupting energy security, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would also affect India’s huge imports of chemical fertilizers from the region: 63 percent of India’s total nitrogen fertilizer imports and 32 percent of its diammonium phosphate fertilizer come through this route. The resulting inflationary pressures would hit the Indian economy at all levels. In addition, the devastation and uncertainty caused by the war in the Middle East would also negatively affect the more than 9 million Indian diaspora living in the six Gulf countries. The war could also disrupt India’s huge foreign exchange earnings from remittances, estimated at around $50 billion.
From Economy to Security
However, the true nature of the impact of this war goes far beyond economics and trade, extending to the realms of geopolitics and security. It will cause strategic disruptions and a realignment of the security architecture of the Middle East, developments that will have long-term implications for South Asian security.
Contrary to the largely pro-Iranian views in New Delhi, Tehran’s policy on Kashmir has never been reassuring to India. Tehran has considered Kashmir to be on par with Palestine. In 2019, the Iranian government criticized Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s revocation of Kashmir’s special status.
The Iranian revolution has been a model for many Muslims and Islamist groups. A war that ends with Iran strengthened, Israel weakened, and the US presence in West Asia diminished would embolden Islamist groups around the world. Given that India faces an existential threat from radical Islamism from within and without, an Iranian victory (or even the perception of an Iranian victory) could be a sign of dangerous days ahead.
America’s Defeat and the New West Asian Architecture
Changes in the regional security architecture of West Asia will also have a negative impact on India. Israel weakened and engaged on multiple fronts, will find it difficult to come to India’s aid, as it did in the 1999 Kargil War and Operation Sindoor last year. On the other hand, Iran’s weakening is likely to create more space for Türkiye, Pakistan’s key defense partner.
The Gulf States, now realizing the limitations of America’s ability to provide security, may accelerate their engagement with Islamabad, Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow. Pakistan’s ongoing efforts to mediate will strengthen its position in the region. For the United States, it may also give Pakistan more leeway as a security provider in the Middle East, which would weaken Washington’s ability to assist New Delhi in any future war between India and Pakistan.
Pakistan too!
Moreover, the security uncertainties following Iran’s attacks on the Gulf states will expand the scope of the Pakistan-Saudi strategic mutual defense agreement. Negotiations are also underway to include Egypt and Turkey in the pact. This axis, if coordinated with China, would conflict with India’s broader strategic and military interests in the region and, in addition to strengthening Pakistan’s diplomatic and military position, would also empower Islamist forces in South Asia. Hence, India faces the risk of regional isolation and the formation of a coordinated and coherent bloc of enemies.