PNN – Pointing to the failure of Trump’s plans in the region, Atwan writes that the realities on the ground substantiate this claim, and that visits to Iran by officials from various nations signal the emergence of a new regional order—one that excludes the United States.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network; Abdel Bari Atwan—an analyst of regional strategic affairs—wrote in the newspaper Rai Al-Youm that the embarrassment surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims regarding the Strait of Hormuz, combined with another significant development, points to the likely defeat of the ruling Republican Party in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, which are now just days away.
First: A statement released on Thursday by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) asserted that three oil tankers caught fire and sank after striking naval mines while attempting to navigate through the southern routes of the Strait of Hormuz. This incident occurred just one day after the U.S. military announced that it had neutralized all naval mines planted by Iran along the Strait’s primary shipping lanes.
Second: A Zionist container ship sank in the Black Sea, near the coast of Bulgaria, following an attack by three maritime drones of “unknown origin.” Preliminary information indicates that the vessel was carrying 421 containers—some containing high-explosive materials—and had departed from the port of Haifa in occupied Palestine.
Noting that encounters between oil tankers and naval mines are not a new phenomenon, he emphasized that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains near-total control over the Strait of Hormuz. More significantly, a highly advanced American drone—an “MQM-170″—was captured by Iran, remaining intact.
This comes as Trump claims that maritime traffic in the Strait has returned to the pre-crisis norm, with the volume of oil transported by tankers exceeding 20 million barrels per day.
Pointing to the attack on a Zionist container ship in the Black Sea, Atwan writes that if this incident is also the work of Iran, it would signify that the force has moved from making threats to executing them—expanding the geographical scope of its operations to target U.S. and Israeli assets and bases outside the Middle East, specifically within Europe, its surrounding waters, and on the continent’s own soil.
He interpreted the U.S. proposal to resume negotiations—conveyed by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council—as an explicit, official admission by the United States that the military option in the war against Iran has failed. He further asserted that this move represents a desperate, last-ditch effort to end the conflict—coming just days before the midterm elections—aimed at saving the Republican Party from a major electoral defeat.
On the other hand, Trump’s claim that he did not task his vice president with carrying out such an action confirms the existence of rifts between the president and his deputy. It may even indicate that the vice president defied him, positioning himself as a potential successor for the leadership of the Republican Party in the post-election period—a period that could follow a potential defeat.
In conclusion, Atwan writes that the United States has been defeated in its conflict with Iran and has begun the process of withdrawing from the Middle East. This explains the withdrawal of all forces and the evacuation of U.S. military bases in Syria, as well as in northern and southern Iraq, alongside the dismantling of American bases in the Persian Gulf region.
The visits to Tehran by delegations from three major U.S. allies—Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan—and their coordination with Iran may well reflect an acknowledgment by the leaders of these nations of a new reality: the beginning of the U.S. withdrawal from the region. Consequently, these countries are moving toward greater self-reliance and the establishment of a regional security architecture independent of the United States.