PNN – A Hebrew-language media outlet has acknowledged that the global energy market is undergoing one of the most critical periods in its history.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network; the Zman Yisrael newspaper wrote in an analytical report on the matter that all hopes for achieving even temporary stability in the global energy market—following the signing of the understanding between the United States and Iran on June 18—have been dashed.
This memorandum led to a temporary resumption of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing maritime transport volumes to around 12 million barrels per day—or possibly higher; however, following an escalation of tensions in the Strait, tanker traffic plummeted once again to levels comparable to those seen during the war.
The report’s author added that, in this instance, the dispute and conflict were not centered on Iran’s nuclear program or its government; rather, control over the Strait of Hormuz lies at the heart of the confrontation. The rhetoric from both Iran and the United States is unequivocal: each side claims authority over the Strait and seeks to assert that claim through the use of military power.
However, the circumstances this time differ from previous rounds of conflict; the rules of the game have completely changed. The global energy market finds itself at the nadir of a deep crisis, having failed to heal the wounds inflicted by the previous crisis.
A stark and significant difference between the February blockade and the current one lies in the level of strategic energy reserves.
When the energy market entered its initial crisis, global reserves were far higher than they are today.
However, since the outbreak of the war, strategic emergency reserves have undergone unprecedented depletion, losing 3.8 million barrels daily.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) historic emergency plan to inject 400 million barrels of oil into the markets—launched in March 2026—served as a temporary measure to offset the shortfall caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; yet, these reserves are now nearing exhaustion.
Amidst this, the status of the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has reached a critical juncture. This emergency stockpile was established in the 1970s, a measure adopted in the wake of the lessons learned from the Arab oil embargo.
The core idea was simple: to create a massive energy stockpile with a capacity of 714 million barrels capable of releasing vast quantities of oil into the market during disasters, thereby preventing price spikes and economic paralysis.
This strategy proved effective for decades; however, in recent years, the United States has grown accustomed to using these reserves not merely for acute emergencies, but as a political palliative against inflation. The massive release of 180 million barrels in 2022 following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine—combined with further forced sales during the conflict with Iran—has driven these stockpiles to their lowest levels since 1983.
The United States entered the war with Iran with its oil reserves holding approximately 411 million barrels—equivalent to 58 percent of total storage capacity.
Subsequently, the withdrawal of oil from these reserves during the conflict depleted the stockpile by another 172 million barrels; this measure was taken as part of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) global efforts to mitigate the impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
This decision reduced U.S. reserves to around 319 million barrels, bringing them dangerously close to the 200-million-barrel “red line”—a threshold below which further oil extraction and pumping would no longer be feasible.
Beyond the reduction in volume, there is also a strict structural and technical constraint: emptying oil reserves is far easier than refilling them. The pumping systems at U.S. strategic reserves possess an extraordinary capacity to withdraw approximately 4.4 million barrels of oil per day—a capability that enables a rapid response from Washington. However, due to engineering and structural limitations, the rate at which these reserves can be replenished is capped at around 785,000 barrels per day, at best.
Simply put, this system can extract oil at a rate nearly six times faster than the rate at which it is replenished.
Market analysts estimate that even if the war were to end tomorrow and the United States began large-scale oil purchases to replenish its stockpiles, the country’s strategic reserves would not return to their initial levels before 2031.
In effect, the United States fired its heaviest ammunition at the start of the battle, and its economic tools are now in a highly precarious position.
Another part of the report acknowledges the significant geopolitical consequences involved: should the Strait of Hormuz be closed again for an extended period, China would possess a safety margin—a “breathing room” of approximately seven months—allowing it to weather the crisis without serious damage. In contrast, if the United States were to tap into its emergency reserves at maximum capacity, it would reach a critical point within six to eight weeks where its pumping capability and operational flexibility would be severely compromised.
Iran is well aware of this vulnerability. Tehran knows that Donald Trump was able to manage protracted crises in the Persian Gulf in the past because he was confident in the vast energy reserves lying deep beneath U.S. soil.
This time, however, the West has far less time when it comes to energy. If Iran decides to make good on its threats and close the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period, the United States will no longer be able to rely on the same strategies it employed just a few months ago.
This situation could corner Trump in a dangerous position, forcing him to choose between two extreme options: yielding to Tehran’s terms or engaging in a rapid, aggressive military escalation—the outcome of which remains uncertain.