PNN – The war with Iran not only failed to achieve Trump’s maximum goals, but also pushed Washington towards accepting an agreement that seeks, above all, to open the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network; The Guardian newspaper wrote in an analysis of Donald Trump’s overall changes in position since the beginning of the war against Iran: After a start mixed with arrogance and extreme optimism, reality has shown itself.
The path taken in the war for Trump has reached an alarming point: Iran has been a “fierce enemy” for several US presidents and is not an opponent to be underestimated.
There is a well-known principle in wars: the hopes and optimistic plans that are put forward at the beginning do not last in the face of the enemy. But even by this standard, Trump’s contradictory goals and changing narratives since the start of the war with Iran have become a confusing path that may ultimately bring him back to square one.
Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s Pressure Point on the US Economy
After weeks of intermittent negotiations, reports now indicate that the US and Iran are on the verge of an agreement to end the war; an agreement whose most important immediate result would be the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of this strategic waterway has had a severe impact on the US economy, causing rising gasoline prices, fertilizer shortages and jeopardizing the food chain.
That Trump has made reopening the Strait of Hormuz a priority reflects the newfound deterrence Tehran has gained as a result of the war. This is further underscored by the Trump administration’s decision to resolve the issue through negotiations rather than military action. To put it in perspective, before the war, shipping was allowed to pass through the strait unhindered.
The memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan and Qatar is set to extend the ceasefire for 60 days while talks on Iran’s nuclear program continue. Meanwhile, the prospect of a vague compromise suggests that Trump’s maximum ambitions are being scaled back, and some analysts see it as a setback.
A gradual retreat from maximalist goals
In an article in The Atlantic, Robert Keegan of the Brookings Institution wrote: Trump will likely try to walk away without Americans realizing the scale of the failure.
Meanwhile, many hardline Republicans have warned against any agreement that resembles the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), which Trump withdrew from during his first term.
Senators Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and Roger Wicker, as well as Mike Pompeo, have warned against a deal that might resemble the JCPOA.
From regime change to return to negotiations
At the beginning of the war, Trump had announced maximum and broad goals; such as calling for the surrender of Iranian military and security forces, and even changing the Iranian regime. He later spoke of “unconditional surrender” and repeatedly claimed that Iran’s military power had been destroyed.
However, according to some analysts, Iran’s real power has decreased much less than the White House claims and a large part of its missile and drone capabilities still remain. Also, despite the assassination of some senior Iranian commanders, the main structure of the Iranian government remains intact.
Now, with regime change in Iran effectively sidelined, Trump’s focus is solely on the country’s nuclear program.
Some analysts say Trump has been forced to move toward a deal similar to the JCPOA, even if it is weaker. At the same time, he has raised impractical conditions, such as regional countries joining the Abraham Accords, an issue that is unacceptable to Iran and many other countries in the region.
There have also been reports of his threats against some countries in the region if they side with Iran.
Ultimately, some experts say the real problem is Iran’s distrust of Trump, not simply political or ideological issues. Iran, they say, is seeking a phased agreement and “gradual verification,” while Trump is shifting the focus of the talks by raising marginal issues.