PNN – Despite the media hype generated by Riyadh, evidence from the ground suggests that Saudi Arabia is heading toward another strategic failure in Yemen.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network; despite efforts by Washington and Tel Aviv to distance themselves from the front lines of the Saudi war on Yemen, their involvement in the background of the conflict remains evident. Meanwhile, Riyadh’s alliances with Ankara and Islamabad raise questions about its ability to achieve its objectives amidst mounting complexities on the ground and in the political arena.
US and Israeli Predictions of a Repeat Saudi Defeat in Yemen
In this regard, informed sources reported to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar that although the United States and Israel are careful to avoid the front lines of Saudi Arabia’s renewed war against Yemen, their involvement is undeniable and they are closely monitoring the outcome—even if they prefer not to publicize their role for two reasons:
– The US and the Zionist regime anticipate that Saudi Arabia might face defeat in this war; consequently, they have no desire to shoulder the burden of Riyadh’s failure or add a new defeat to their own list of regional setbacks.
– Public acknowledgment by the Americans and Zionists of their involvement in the Saudi war against Yemen undermines their plans and exposes their true objectives.
In fact, the US and the occupying Zionist regime view this war as part of a broader conflict between the US-led axis and the Axis of Resistance in the region; while they seek a resolution that favors their own interests, they are simultaneously aware that—at least for the time being—there is no prospect of victory.
The Saudis’ Repetitive Tactics against Yemen and Yet another Failure
A closer examination of the coalition structure behind this conflict reveals no significant changes compared to previous wars against Yemen.
The question now arising in regional and even international political and military circles is this: given that numerous direct airstrikes on Sana’a during the previous war—involving American strategic bombers, Israeli fighter jets, and U.S. aircraft carriers—ended in failure, what new element can possibly be brought to this air campaign launched by Riyadh?
Saudi Arabia itself suffered defeat in the war against Yemen—a conflict it spearheaded for over eight years—and is currently repeating the same scenario. Furthermore, the participation of Turkey and Pakistan in the war, in accordance with the terms of the “Mecca Pact,” is structured in a way that will not serve Saudi Arabia’s interests.
Why can Saudi Arabia not count on the support of Pakistan and Turkey?
Yemen is the primary battleground here—not Saudi territory—and the missile and drone attacks by Ansarullah within Saudi Arabia, targeting oil facilities, military bases, airports, and ships, are a direct response to Saudi Arabia’s bombing campaign and blockade against Yemen.
Therefore, there is no Yemeni aggression against Saudi Arabia that would justify invoking the “Mecca Coalition”—an alliance stipulating that any act of aggression against one member state is considered an act of aggression against the others.
Accordingly, any involvement by Turkey and Pakistan would likely be limited to defending Saudi territory itself, rather than participating in attacks on Yemeni soil. However, even if Ankara and Islamabad were to take part in an offensive, they could face direct retaliation—such as attacks on their ships, interests, or perhaps even their own territories.
Fundamentally, such involvement poses significant sensitivity and risk for both Ankara and Islamabad. There is strong opposition in Turkey to intervention in Yemen, while for Pakistan; becoming mired in such a conflict is unthinkable—especially given that the Pakistani parliament voted unanimously in 2015 against deploying troops to Yemen as part of the Saudi-led coalition.
Furthermore, questions remain regarding how members of the Axis of Resistance might respond should Turkey and Pakistan fully participate in the war.
Divisions within the Saudi coalition versus the cohesion and unity of Ansarullah
Another unresolved issue facing the Saudi-led coalitions against Yemen is the lack of genuine unity among their members; they often act against one another, making it relatively easy to exploit the rifts within their ranks.
Meanwhile, Sana’a has mastered the art of infiltrating the ranks of the Saudi-led coalition; it has successfully courted tribes—handling them with great sensitivity—and knows how to balance their interests and win them over, particularly given that it has accustomed Yemenis to the spirit of sacrifice.
Furthermore, every war Yemen’s Ansarullah movement has engaged in has been waged either in defense of Yemen itself or in support of the just causes of the Islamic Ummah—foremost among them the Palestinian cause. This principled stance naturally bolsters the morale of the movement’s fighters and enhances its credibility and standing among Yemeni tribes, thereby rallying many of them to Sana’a’s side.
This is while the Saudi-led coalition is composed of a collection of rival factions with varying loyalties—groups that readily shift their allegiances for a mere handful of riyals or dirhams.
Furthermore, the cause of “Southern Yemen”—which Saudi Arabia had promoted to recruit mercenaries—has lost its significance and impact following the intense clashes that erupted between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in southern Yemen over the past few months.
Meanwhile, the mercenary groups aligned with Saudi Arabia and the UAE are constantly engaged in rivalry and tension with one another. Consequently, such a disparate mix cannot defeat a cohesive force like Ansarullah.
On the other hand, it has become clear to public opinion that the countries participating in the Saudi-led coalition are acting in the interests of the United States and the Zionist regime; this fact alone appears sufficient to erode any public support for Saudi Arabia’s new war.
Furthermore, despite all the media fanfare surrounding the Saudis’ new war on Yemen, it took only a single day for it to become evident that this conflict would lead nowhere for Saudi Arabia—and that this time, Riyadh’s failure in the war against Yemen would carry far greater consequences than in the previous instance.