PNN – Disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Persian Gulf and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz have depleted Europe’s gas reserves ahead of winter and driven up prices.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network citing Anadolu; Europe is heading into winter with gas reserves below normal levels, while reduced LNG inflows from the Persian Gulf have intensified market pressure.
European gas prices hit a more than three-and-a-half-year high on September 8. Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, has halted a significant portion of its exports, suspending shipments to Europe and Asia until autumn due to emergency conditions resulting from the war.
According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU gas storage levels stood at approximately 68%—equivalent to 772 terawatt-hours—as of September 14; a figure that falls short of the customary 90% target set for the pre-winter period.
Price and Storage Situation
Bill Farren-Price, a researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, stated that gas prices have now reached their highest level since the onset of the crisis, although they remain below the price peaks seen in 2022.
Arisa Pascoe, a senior European gas analyst, warned that the issue is not merely the volume of stored gas, but also Europe’s ability to rapidly withdraw gas during periods of peak demand. According to her, while Europe is prepared for a normal winter, it lacks a sufficient safety margin to withstand an exceptionally cold one.
Estimates by the firm Energy Aspects indicate that European gas stocks could reach approximately 75 billion cubic meters—equivalent to 69% of capacity—by the end of October, marking the lowest level in about 14 years. The firm considers a stock level of 88 to 90 billion cubic meters at the start of November to be relatively safe, but deems reaching this volume unlikely under current conditions.
The consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie has also forecast that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another two months, Europe’s gas reserves could fall below 70 percent. Goldman Sachs has similarly estimated that European gas prices could exceed €100 per megawatt-hour in December as the region seeks to secure sufficient supplies.
However, experts emphasize that their base-case scenario does not involve Europe running out of gas, noting that the market can maintain its balance through rising prices and reduced consumption.
Which countries are the most vulnerable?
Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Slovakia are among the countries lagging behind in their storage programs. As of September 14, storage levels stood at 55.8% for Germany, 52.5% for the Netherlands, 76.7% for France, and 52.4% for Slovakia.
As Europe’s largest gas market, Germany is considered the most vulnerable country, and a drop in its reserves could impact neighboring nations as well. The UK also faces heightened vulnerability due to limited seasonal storage capacity and its reliance on Norwegian gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) during periods of peak demand.
What kind of winter will Europe face?
Experts say that severe cold, dwindling reserves, and further disruptions to supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) or pipeline gas could leave Europe facing a serious shortage. Conversely, a mild winter could alleviate some of the pressure.
The European Commission has emphasized that current conditions do not yet amount to an immediate gas supply crisis and that the European Union is better prepared than it was during the energy crisis of 2021–2022, thanks in part to more diversified sources and increased LNG import capacity.
According to Foreign Policy, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important factors that could alleviate pressure on the European gas market and reduce prices.