PNN – Instead of playing an active role in ending the Iran war, Saudi Arabia is passively waiting for it to end.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network, Foreign Policy magazine has examined Saudi Arabia’s difficult situation in the midst of the US and Israel’s conflict with Iran in an analysis, some of the main points of which are as follows:
- Prioritizing Vision 2030 over military confrontation
Saudi Arabia has invested billions of dollars in mega projects such as the futuristic city of Neom and its economic transformation. Riyadh knows that any direct entry into war would destroy these large investments. For this reason, Saudi officials have been forced to cut spending in non-essential areas (such as the divestment of 70% of Al-Hilal football club and the suspension of the golf league) in order to devote resources to defense and vital infrastructure.
- Fear of the “Iranian Victory” Scenario
Stephen Cook believes that the Saudis’ passivity is due to fear of the future. They see three scenarios ahead of them: “stalemate”, “decisive American victory” and “Iranian victory”. Riyadh is worried that if Iran wins (including the lifting of sanctions, the US withdrawal from the region and Tehran’s sovereignty over Hormuz), it will pay a heavy price for its hostility towards Iran; therefore, it is walking on the thin edge of “denying support for the war” and “verbal threats of revenge”.
- Deep mistrust of Washington and Tel Aviv
The Saudis believe that the United States and Israel have unleashed forces in the region that they themselves are unable to control. Riyadh has added Operation Epic Fury to a long list of ill-advised actions by Washington, such as the 2003 invasion of Iraq that have ultimately destabilized the region and exposed Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure.
- The paradox of “claiming power” and “passive behavior”
The author emphasizes that a country that considers itself the most important power in the Arab world, in the midst of a fierce fire in its neighborhood, is now content with issuing harsh statements. This behavior shows that Saudi Arabia’s real influence, despite its rhetoric, remains heavily dependent on the American umbrella of support, which is now itself part of the crisis.
- Saudi Arabia’s Humiliation Trap
Foreign Policy points out that Saudi Arabia is caught in a humiliation trap. If Riyadh does not respond to attacks by forces allied with Iran, it will lose its regional prestige, and if it does, its economic prospects will be destroyed. This “strategic confusion” has prevented Saudi Arabia from joining the league of decisive powers (such as Iran and Israel).
- Conclusion
The Foreign Policy report shows that Saudi Arabia is seeking a quick end to the war rather than playing an active role, with a passive expectation. Caught between a heartfelt desire to weaken Iran and a realistic fear of Tehran’s missile capabilities, Riyadh has preferred to remain silent rather than be at the “table” of power.