PNN – The former head of the Iran desk at Israeli military intelligence has declared in a new analysis that the war against Iran has reached a strategic stalemate and Tehran will not surrender. According to him, the United States and Israel are now caught between a difficult agreement or an escalation of the conflict with no clear end.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network; Denis Citronovich, former head of the Iran desk at Israeli military intelligence, wrote in his latest analysis: At a general level, it is important to acknowledge a harsh truth: this war is a prime example of the old adage that “strategy must precede action.”
The underlying assumption in the United States and Israel was that weakening Iran militarily would ultimately lead to the collapse of the regime, and that a sustained US-Israeli campaign targeting the leaders could bring about systemic change that would transform the Middle East.
But this war ignored a crucial variable: The Islamic Republic of Iran is a different kind of actor. Traditional cost-benefit calculations in the conventional sense do not apply to it.
Moreover, the war has created second-order consequences that have made the strategic environment more complex, not simpler.
These developments force the US administration into a narrow range of options, none of which are good.
The choice increasingly looks like this: either accept an agreement that is essentially a strengthened version of the previous nuclear agreement, or return to a military escalation that carries significant regional risks without providing any guarantee of meaningful change in Iranian behavior.
It is not yet clear how this war will end. But at this point, it is difficult to avoid one conclusion: the war has created a more difficult strategic environment for Iran’s neighbors, Israel, and the United States.
And most importantly, Iran has no intention of surrendering. Neither pressure nor military escalation is likely to force Tehran to abandon its principles.
There is no decisive blow. There is no silver bullet.
Only two realistic paths remain: an agreement that bears a striking resemblance to what Iran was willing to consider before the war, or a broader conflict with no clear end in sight. That is the reality.