PNN – The new round of Iranian attacks on Israel has imposed new deterrence equations on the enemy, demonstrating “Iran’s commitment to regional allies” and establishing that the attack on Dahieh is a violation of Iran’s red lines.
According to the report of Pakistan News Network; Last night’s Iranian attack on the occupied territories was not just a military response to the bombing of Beirut’s southern suburbs or a mere message of support for Hezbollah; rather, the more important goal of these attacks was Iran’s attempt to establish a new deterrence equation in the region. The content of this equation is that if Israel targets Dahieh, the response may be directed from Iran towards Haifa and northern Israel.
By establishing the new equation, Tehran is trying to prevent the Zionist regime from gaining an advantage in managing the escalation of tensions. In recent days, Tel Aviv has been trying to expand the scope of its attacks in Lebanon, especially in the south and Dahieh, but Iran wants to shift the cost of attacking Dahieh into the occupied territories.
Al Jazeera wrote in an article referring to this issue that choosing the north of the occupied territories to carry out the first round of attacks gives this message more weight, because Haifa and its surroundings and the military bases in the north are considered a sensitive depth for Tel Aviv and are directly linked to the Lebanese front; therefore, bringing them into the Iranian response circle means that Dahieh is no longer a target that can be attacked without the possibility of a direct response from Tehran.
Strategic Messages of Iran’s Attacks
Arif Dehghandar, an international security researcher, stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that Iran’s missile attacks on the occupied territories carry clear strategic messages, most notably emphasizing “Tehran’s irrevocable commitment to its network of regional allies” and establishing that targeting areas such as Beirut’s southern suburbs is a “blatant violation of Iran’s security red lines.”
Dehghandar adds that through this action, Tehran seeks to demonstrate a fundamental shift in its strategic approaches, such that it is no longer a predictable actor in its enemies’ deterrence calculations and, if necessary, is able to go beyond previous models and take the initiative in the field independently and directly.
The international security researcher believes that Tehran’s strategic assumption is based on the fact that the United States is not inclined to escalate tensions at this stage and that the consequences of an attack are easier to manage. In contrast, the Zionist regime will see the new changes in the balance of power as a serious damage to its deterrence structure.
Al Jazeera, quoting Dehghandar, predicted that the Israeli regime will try to repair the lines of deterrence and prove the independence of its security decision-making, away from external considerations and variables such as pressure from US President Donald Trump, through an independent, limited and controlled response.
America’s Promise Not Fulfilled
On the other hand, political analyst Reza Ghobishawi assessed the Iranian attack from the perspective of a ceasefire violation and America’s retreat from previous commitments, telling Al Jazeera that Iran’s missile attack on the occupied territories was actually a response to the ceasefire violation and America’s breach of promise to Iran.
Ghobishawi added that according to the ceasefire understanding between Iran and the US, mediated by Pakistan, this understanding was supposed to include Lebanon, but this did not happen. US President Donald Trump had pledged to prevent Israel from attacking the southern suburbs, but contrary to his promise, he announced his support for the Zionist regime’s attacks on the suburbs.
According to this political analyst, Iranian officials want to send a message to the United States and the Zionist regime that Iran is still ready for war and any possible attacks against it.
A Serious Test of the Deterrence Equation
Al Jazeera concludes that Iran’s attack goes beyond an immediate response and is part of an effort to redefine the rules of engagement. Tehran does not want the Zionist regime to continue to be able to attack Dahieh or Lebanon while controlling the parameters of the level of attacks and the possible areas of missile responses.
According to the report, the danger of the current situation is that the two sides are examining the equation from two opposing angles. Iran wants to solidify the “Dahieh versus the North” equation, while Israel may see accepting this rule, even implicitly, as an erosion of its deterrence capability and freedom of action in Lebanon.